Did the UK's public health shielding policy protect the clinically extremely vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic in Wales? Results of EVITE Immunity, a linked data retrospective study.

INTRODUCTION: The UK shielding policy intended to protect people at the highest risk of harm from COVID-19 infection. We aimed to describe intervention effects in Wales at 1 year. METHODS: Retrospective comparison of linked demographic and clinical data for cohorts comprising people identified for shielding from 23 March to 21 May 2020; and the rest of the population. Health records were extracted with event dates between 23 March 2020 and 22 March 2021 for the comparator cohort and from the date of inclusion until 1 year later for the shielded cohort. RESULTS: The shielded cohort included 117,415 people, with 3,086,385 in the comparator cohort. The largest clinical categories in the shielded cohort were severe respiratory condition (35.5%), immunosuppressive therapy (25.9%) and cancer (18.6%). People in the shielded cohort were more likely to be female, aged ≥50 years, living in relatively deprived areas, care home residents and frail. The proportion of people tested for COVID-19 was higher in the shielded cohort (odds ratio [OR] 1.616; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.597-1.637), with lower positivity rate incident rate ratios 0.716 (95% CI 0.697-0.736). The known infection rate was higher in the shielded cohort (5.9% vs 5.7%). People in the shielded cohort were more likely to die (OR 3.683; 95% CI: 3.583-3.786), have a critical care admission (OR 3.339; 95% CI: 3.111-3.583), hospital emergency admission (OR 2.883; 95% CI: 2.837-2.930), emergency department attendance (OR 1.893; 95% CI: 1.867-1.919) and common mental disorder (OR 1.762; 95% CI: 1.735-1.789). CONCLUSION: Deaths and healthcare utilisation were higher amongst shielded people than the general population, as would be expected in the sicker population. Differences in testing rates, deprivation and pre-existing health are potential confounders; however, lack of clear impact on infection rates raises questions about the success of shielding and indicates that further research is required to fully evaluate this national policy intervention.

Using deterministic record linkage to link ambulance and emergency department data: is it possible without patient identifiers? A case study from the UK.

INTRODUCTION: Routine linkage of emergency ambulance records with those from the emergency department is uncommon in the UK. Our study, known as the Pre-Hospital Emergency Department Data Linking Project (PHED Data), aimed to link records of all patients conveyed by a single emergency ambulance service to thirteen emergency departments in the UK from 2012-2016. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine the feasibility and resource requirements of collecting de-identified emergency department patient record data and, using a deterministic matching algorithm, linking it to ambulance service data. METHODS: We used a learning log to record contacts and activities undertaken by the research team to achieve data linkage. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with information management/governance staff involved in the process. RESULTS: We found that five steps were required for successful data linkage for each hospital trust. The total time taken to achieve linkage was a mean of 65 weeks. A total of 958,057 emergency department records were obtained and, of these, 81% were linked to a corresponding ambulance record. The match rate varied between hospital trusts (50%-94%). Staff expressed strong enthusiasm for data linkage. Barriers to successful linkage were mainly due to inconsistencies between and within acute trusts in the recording of two ambulance event identifiers (CAD and call sign). Further data cleaning was required on emergency department fields before full analysis could be conducted. Ensuring the data was not re-identifiable limited validation of the matching method. CONCLUSION: We conclude that deterministic record linkage based on the combination of two event identifiers (CAD and call sign) is possible. There is an appetite for data linkage in healthcare organisations but it is a slow process. Developments in standardising the recording of emergency department data are likely to improve the quality of the resultant linked dataset. This would further increase its value for providing evidence to support improvements in health care delivery. HIGHLIGHTS: Ambulance records are rarely linked to other datasets; this study looks at the feasibility and resource requirement to use deterministic matching to link ambulance and emergency department data for patients conveyed by ambulance to the emergency department.It is possible to link these data, with an average match rate of 81% across 13 emergency departments and one large ambulance trust.All trusts approached provided match-able data and there was an appetite for data linkage; however, it was a long process taking an average of 65 weeks.We conclude that deterministic matching using no patient identifiers can be used in this setting.

How do emergency ambulance paramedics view the care they provide to people who self harm?: Ways and means.

The UK has one of the highest rates of self harm (SH) in Europe, and almost four times more people die by suicide than in road traffic collisions. Emergency ambulance paramedics are often the first health professionals involved in the care of people who have self-harmed, yet little is known about the care provided or issues raised in these encounters. The aim of this study is to explore paramedics' perceptions and experiences of caring for people who SH, to inform education and policy. Semi structured interviews were conducted with paramedics, and themes generated by constant comparison coding. This paper reports two emerging themes: Firstly, professional, legal, clinical and ethical tensions, linked to limited decision support, referral options and education. The second theme of relationships with police, revealed practices and surreptitious strategies related to care and detention, aimed at overcoming complexities of care. In the absence of tailored education, guidance or support for self-harm care, 'ways and means' have evolved which may negatively influence care and challenge ethical and legal frameworks. There is an urgent need to include evidence from this study in revised guidance and educational materials for paramedics working with people who self-harm in the prehospital emergency setting.

Effects of an air pollution personal alert system on health service usage in a high-risk general population: a quasi-experimental study using linked data.

BACKGROUND: There is no evidence to date on whether an intervention alerting people to high levels of pollution is effective in reducing health service utilisation. We evaluated alert accuracy and the effect of a targeted personal air pollution alert system, airAware, on emergency hospital admissions, emergency department attendances, general practitioner contacts and prescribed medications. METHODS: Quasi-experimental study describing accuracy of alerts compared with pollution triggers; and comparing relative changes in healthcare utilisation in the intervention group to those who did not sign-up. Participants were people diagnosed with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or coronary heart disease, resident in an industrial area of south Wales and registered patients at 1 of 4 general practices. Longitudinal anonymised record linked data were modelled for participants and non-participants, adjusting for differences between groups. RESULTS: During the 2-year intervention period alerts were correctly issued on 208 of 248 occasions; sensitivity was 83.9% (95% CI 78.8% to 87.9%) and specificity 99.5% (95% CI 99.3% to 99.6%). The intervention was associated with a 4-fold increase in admissions for respiratory conditions (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 3.97; 95% CI 1.59 to 9.93) and a near doubling of emergency department attendance (IRR=1.89; 95% CI 1.34 to 2.68). CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was associated with increased emergency admissions for respiratory conditions. While findings may be context specific, evidence from this evaluation questions the benefits of implementing near real-time personal pollution alert systems for high-risk individuals.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a universal parenting skills programme in deprived communities: multicentre randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost utility of a universally provided early years parenting programme. DESIGN: Multicentre randomised controlled trial with cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING: Early years centres in four deprived areas of South Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Families with children aged between 2 and 4 years. 286 families were recruited and randomly allocated to the intervention or waiting list control. INTERVENTION: The Family Links Nurturing Programme (FLNP), a 10-week course with weekly 2 h facilitated group sessions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Negative and supportive parenting, child and parental well-being and costs assessed before the intervention, following the course (3 months) and at 9 months using standardised measures. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in primary or secondary outcomes between trial arms at 3 or 9 months. With '+' indicating improvement, difference in change in negative parenting score at 9 months was +0.90 (95%CI -1.90 to 3.69); in supportive parenting, +0.17 (95%CI -0.61 to 0.94); and 12 of the 17 secondary outcomes showed a non-significant positive effect in the FLNP arm. Based on changes in parental well-being (SF-12), the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained was estimated to be £34 913 (range 21 485-46 578) over 5 years and £18 954 (range 11 664-25 287) over 10 years. Probability of cost per QALY gained below £30 000 was 47% at 5 years and 57% at 10 years. Attendance was low: 34% of intervention families attended no sessions (n=48); only 47% completed the course (n=68). Also, 19% of control families attended a parenting programme before 9-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our trial has not found evidence of clinical or cost utility for the FLNP in a universal setting. However, low levels of exposure and contamination mean that uncertainty remains. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13919732.

Is it cost effective to introduce paramedic practitioners for older people to the ambulance service? Results of a cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: A scheme to train paramedics to undertake a greater role in the care of older people following a call for an emergency ambulance was developed in a large city in the UK. OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost effectiveness of the paramedic practitioner (PP) scheme compared with usual emergency care. METHODS: A cluster randomised controlled trial was undertaken of PP compared with usual care. Weeks were allocated to the study group at random to the PP scheme either being active (intervention) or inactive (control). Resource use data were collected from routine sources, and from patient-completed questionnaires for events up to 28 days. EQ-5D data were also collected at 28 days. RESULTS: Whereas the intervention group received more PP contact time, it reduced the proportion of emergency department (ED) attendances (53.3% vs 84.0%) and time in the ED (126.6 vs 211.3 minutes). There was also some evidence of increased use of health services in the days following the incident for patients in the intervention group. Overall, total costs in the intervention group were 140 UK pounds lower when routine data were considered (p = 0.63). When the costs and QALY were considered simultaneously, PP had a greater than 95% chance of being cost effective at 20 000 UK pounds per QALY. CONCLUSION: Several changes in resource use are associated with the use of PP. Given these economic results in tandem with the clinical, operational and patient-related benefits, the wider implementation and evaluation of similar schemes should be considered.

A randomised controlled trial comparing fixation of mandibular angle fractures with a single miniplate placed either transbuccally and intra-orally, or intra-orally alone.

This study compared fixation of simple mandibular angle fractures with a single miniplate either placed from a combined transbuccal and intra-oral approach, or intra-orally alone. 140 consecutive patients were randomly allocated to the two treatment groups. Complications were noted and compared. An email questionnaire to all the participating surgeons examined their personal preferences between the two methods. 20% of plates needed to be removed during the 3 month study period in the combined transbuccal/intra-oral group compared with 36% in the intra-oral alone group (p

"Covering our backs": ambulance crews' attitudes towards clinical documentation when emergency (999) patients are not conveyed to hospital.

BACKGROUND: Up to 30% of people who call for an emergency ambulance are, for various reasons, not conveyed to hospital. Across the UK, the majority of ambulance services have policies and procedures requiring ambulance crews to complete clinical documentation for these patients, as they do for patients who travel to hospital. However, studies have suggested that documentation does not get completed for a large proportion of non-conveyed patients. METHODS: A qualitative study in one large ambulance service trust used focus groups to explore crew members' attitudes towards clinical documentation and non-conveyed patients. RESULTS: Considerable ambiguity was found: crews were aware of the need to "cover their backs" by completing clinical records, but at the same time expressed doubts about the value of this documentation. There appeared to be two main circumstances in which records were not completed. Firstly, there were the cases where crews may have been unable to obtain necessary information from patients who were intoxicated or otherwise uncooperative. Secondly, there were cases where the crews may not have recognised their encounter with a patient as having a clinical dimension, such as older people who had fallen but were apparently uninjured. These circumstances were combined with a lack of monitoring by managers of whether forms were being completed, and a disinclination on the part of some crew members to do what they regarded as unnecessary work. CONCLUSION: The low rates of completion of clinical records for non-conveyed patients appeared to result from crew members not believing they were important in every circumstance, combined with a lack of management focus. Low rates of completion may lead in turn to clinical risk and a risk of litigation if things go wrong.

Hearing half the message? A re-audit of the care of patients with acute asthma by emergency ambulance crews in London.

PROBLEM: An initial audit of the care provided to emergency asthma patients by the ambulance service was carried out in 1996. Some under-recognition and under-treatment of severe asthma was found as well as a lack of documentation of patient condition on scene. A re-audit was undertaken in 1999. DESIGN: A multidisciplinary advisory group was reconvened. The same method was adopted as for the first audit. Patients included were those administered nebulised salbutamol by crews in the catchment areas of four hospitals and those diagnosed with asthma at the Accident & Emergency (A&E) departments of those hospitals between January and March 1999. SETTING: London Ambulance Service. KEY MEASURES FOR IMPROVEMENT: (1) Accuracy of diagnosis and appropriateness of treatment, and (2) adherence to protocol. STRATEGIES FOR CHANGE: Following the first audit, treatment protocols were widened and brought into line with the British Thoracic Society guidelines for care of acute asthma patients. The results were widely disseminated within the service and training was initiated for all operational staff. EFFECTS OF CHANGE: The number of patients included in the re-audit more than doubled (audit 1: n = 252, audit 2: n = 532). The increase occurred exclusively in those administered nebulised salbutamol by ambulance crews but diagnosed with conditions other than asthma in A&E (audit 1: n = 15, audit 2: n = 161). The proportion of patients diagnosed with asthma in A&E who were administered nebulised salbutamol by their attending crew rose from 58% to 75%. However, 43 asthma patients were not treated; several of these were not recognised as suffering from asthma and others fell within the changed protocols for treatment. Adherence to protocol for administration of salbutamol remained high. Pre-hospital documentation of key observations did not improve. LESSONS LEARNT: Messages from the first audit seem to have been acted upon selectively. Implementing change is complex, and re-audit is necessary to understand the effects of the changes made.

Gaps between policy, protocols and practice: a qualitative study of the views and practice of emergency ambulance staff concerning the care of patients with non-urgent needs.

AIM: To describe emergency ambulance crews' views about (1) how they make decisions on whether to convey patients to hospital; (2) an intervention enabling them to triage patients to non-conveyance; and (3) their experience of using new protocols for undertaking such triage. METHODS: Two focus groups were held at the outset of an evaluation of Treat and Refer (T&R) protocols: one with staff based at an ambulance station who were to implement the new service (intervention station), and the other with staff from a neighbouring station who would be continuing their normal practice during the study (control station). A third session was held with staff from the intervention station following training and 3 months' experience of protocol usage. RESULTS: Before the introduction of the T&R protocols, crews reported experience, intuition, training, time of call during shift, patient preference, and home situation as influencing their decisions concerning conveyance. Crews were positive about changing practice but foresaw difficulties with advising patients who wanted to go to hospital, and with referral to other agencies. Following experience of T&R protocol use, crews felt they had needed more training than had been provided. Some felt their practice and job satisfaction had improved. Problems with referral and with persuading some patients that they did not need to go to hospital were discussed. There was consensus that the initiative should be introduced across the service. CONCLUSIONS: With crews generally positive about this intervention, an opportunity to tackle this difficult area of emergency care now exists. This study has, however, highlighted the complexity of the change in practice and service delivery, and professional and organisational constraints that need to be considered.

Towards primary care for non-serious 999 callers: results of a controlled study of "Treat and Refer" protocols for ambulance crews.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate "Treat and Refer" protocols for ambulance crews, allowing them to leave patients at the scene with onward referral or self-care advice as appropriate. METHODS: Crew members from one ambulance station were trained to use the treatment protocols. Processes and outcomes of care for patients attended by trained crews were compared with similar patients attended by crews from a neighbouring station. Pre-hospital records were collected for all patients. Records of any emergency department and primary care contacts during the 14 days following the call were collected for non-conveyed patients who were also followed up by postal questionnaire. RESULTS: Twenty three protocols were developed which were expected to cover over 75% of patients left at the scene by the attending crew. There were 251 patients in the intervention arm and 537 in the control arm. The two groups were similar in terms of age, sex and condition category but intervention cases were more likely to have been attended during daytime hours than at night. There was no difference in the proportion of patients left at the scene in the intervention and control arms; the median job cycle time was longer for intervention group patients. Protocols were reported as having been used in 101 patients (40.2%) in the intervention group; 17 of the protocols were recorded as having been used at least once during the study. Clinical documentation was generally higher in the intervention group, although a similar proportion of patients in both groups had no clinical assessments recorded. 288 patients were left at the scene (93 in the intervention group, 195 in the control group). After excluding those who refused to travel, there were three non-conveyed patients in each group who were admitted to hospital within 14 days of the call who were judged to have been left at home inappropriately. A higher proportion of patients in the intervention arm reported satisfaction with the service and advice provided. CONCLUSIONS: "Treat and Refer" protocols did not increase the number of patients left at home but were used by crews and were acceptable to patients. The protocols increased job cycle time and some safety issues were identified. Their introduction is complex, and the extent to which the content of the protocols, decision support and training can be refined needs further study.

Safety of telephone consultation for "non-serious" emergency ambulance service patients.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety of nurses and paramedics offering telephone assessment, triage, and advice as an alternative to immediate ambulance dispatch for emergency ambulance service callers classified by lay call takers as presenting with "non-serious" problems (category C calls). DESIGN: Data for this study were collected as part of a pragmatic randomised controlled trial reported elsewhere. The intervention arm of the trial comprised nurse or paramedic telephone consultation using a computerised decision support system to assess, triage, and advise patients whose calls to the emergency ambulance service had been classified as "non-serious" by call takers applying standard priority dispatch criteria. A multidisciplinary expert clinical panel reviewed data from ambulance service, accident and emergency department, hospital inpatient and general practice records, and call transcripts for patients triaged by nurses and paramedics into categories that indicated that dispatch of an emergency ambulance was unnecessary. All cases for which one or more members of the panel rated that an emergency ambulance should have been dispatched were re-reviewed by the entire panel for an assessment of the "life risk" that might have resulted. SETTING: Ambulance services in London and the West Midlands, UK. STUDY POPULATION: Of 635 category C patients assessed by nurses and paramedics, 330 (52%) cases that had been triaged as not requiring an emergency ambulance were identified. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Assessment of safety of triage decisions. RESULTS: Sufficient data were available from the routine clinical records of 239 (72%) subjects to allow review by the specialist panel. For 231 (96.7%) sets of case notes reviewed, the majority of the panel concurred with the nurses' or paramedics' triage decision. Following secondary review of the records of the remaining eight patients, only two were rated by the majority as having required an emergency ambulance within 14 minutes. For neither of these did a majority of the panel consider that the patient would have been at "life risk" without an emergency ambulance being immediately dispatched. However, the transcripts of these two calls indicated that the correct triage decision had been communicated to the patient, which suggests that the triage decision had been incorrectly entered into the decision support system. CONCLUSIONS: Telephone advice may be a safe method of managing many category C callers to 999 ambulance services. A clinical trial of the full implementation of this intervention is needed, large enough to exclude the possibility of rare adverse events.

On-scene alternatives for emergency ambulance crews attending patients who do not need to travel to the accident and emergency department: a review of the literature.

With rising demand and recognition of the variety of cases attended by emergency ambulance crews, services have been considering alternative ways of providing non-urgent care. This paper describes and appraises the research literature concerning on-scene alternatives to conveyance to an emergency department, focusing on the: (1) profile and outcomes of patients attended but not conveyed by emergency crews; (2) triage ability of crews; (3) effectiveness and safety of protocols that allow crews to convey patients to alternative receiving units or to self care. The literature search was conducted through standard medical databases, supplemented with manual searches. Very few "live" studies were identified, and fewer still that included a control group. Findings indicated a complex area, with the introduction of protocols allowing crews to leave patients at scene carrying clinical risk. Robust research evidence concerning alternatives to current emergency care models is needed urgently to inform service and practice development.

Results of an evaluation of the effectiveness of triage and direct transportation to minor injuries units by ambulance crews.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate triage and transportation to a minor injury unit (MIU) by emergency ambulance crews. METHODS: Ambulance crews in two services were asked to transport appropriate patients to MIU during randomly selected weeks of one year. During all other weeks they were to treat such patients according to normal practice. Patients were followed up through ambulance service, hospital and/or MIU records, and by postal questionnaire. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with crews (n = 15). Cases transferred from MIU to accident and emergency (A&E) were reviewed. RESULTS: 41 intervention cluster patients attended MIU, 303 attended A&E, 65 were not conveyed. Thirty seven control cluster patients attended MIU, 327 attended A&E, 61 stayed at scene. Because of low study design compliance, outcomes of patients taken to MIU were compared with those taken to A&E, adjusted for case mix. MIU patients were 7.2 times as likely to rate their care as excellent (95% CI 1.99 to 25.8). Ambulance service job-cycle time and time in unit were shorter for MIU patients (-7.8, 95% CI -11.5 to -4.1); (-222.7, 95%CI -331.9 to -123.5). Crews cited patient and operational factors as inhibiting MIU use; and location, service, patient choice, job-cycle time, and handover as encouraging their use. Of seven patients transferred by ambulance from MIU to A&E, medical reviewers judged that three had not met the protocol for conveyance to MIU. No patients were judged to have suffered adverse consequences. CONCLUSIONS: MIUs were only used for a small proportion of eligible patients. When they were used, patients and the ambulance service benefited.

Computer assisted assessment and advice for "non-serious" 999 ambulance service callers: the potential impact on ambulance despatch.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential impact for ambulance services of telephone assessment and triage for callers who present with non-serious problems (Category C calls) as classified by ambulance service call takers. DESIGN: Pragmatic controlled trial. Calls identified using priority dispatch protocols as non-serious were allocated to intervention and control groups according to time of call. Ambulance dispatch occurred according to existing procedures. During intervention sessions, nurses or paramedics within the control room used a computerised decision support system to provide telephone assessment, triage and, if appropriate, offer advice to permit estimation of the potential impact on ambulance dispatch. SETTING: Ambulance services in London and the West Midlands. SUBJECTS: Patients for whom emergency calls were made to the ambulance services between April 1998 and May 1999 during four hour sessions sampled across all days of the week between 0700 and 2300. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Triage decision, ambulance cancellation, attendance at an emergency department. RESULTS: In total, there were 635 intervention calls and 611 controls. Of those in the intervention group, 330 (52.0%) were triaged as not requiring an emergency ambulance, and 119 (36.6%) of these did not attend an emergency department. This compares with 55 (18.1%) of those triaged by a nurse or paramedic as requiring an ambulance (odds ratio 2.62; 95% CI 1.78 to 3.85). Patients triaged as not requiring an emergency ambulance were less likely to be admitted to an inpatient bed (odds ratio 0.55; 95% CI 0.33 to 0.93), but even so 30 (9.2%) were admitted. Nurses were more likely than paramedics to triage calls into the groups classified as not requiring an ambulance. After controlling for age, case mix, time of day, day of week, season, and ambulance service, the results of a logistic regression analysis revealed that this difference was significant with an odds ratio for nurses:paramedics of 1.28 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.47). CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that telephone assessment of Category C calls identifies patients who are less likely to require emergency department care and that this could have a significant impact on emergency ambulance dispatch rates. Nurses were more likely than paramedics to assess calls as requiring an alternative response to emergency ambulance despatch, but the extent to which this relates to aspects of training and professional perspective is unclear. However, consideration should be given to the acceptability, reliability, and cost consequences of this intervention before it can be recommended for full evaluation.